The
Understanding Is Based Upon Mutual Interest, Territorial In The Case Of
Russia, Commercial In That Of Germany, And Political In The Case Of
France.
The cornerstone of the combination is Russia, whose goodwill is
sought for at all costs by France, in a lesser degree by Germany, and,
latterly, even by Austria-Hungary.
The chief aim of the combination is the
reduction of England to a secondary position, politically and
commercially. In China, the outcome of the coalition has been to isolate
England completely. For some years past, her efforts to secure concessions
at Pekin have been frustrated by Russia and France. Meanwhile, these two
countries, and, more lately, Germany as well, have secured for themselves
solid advantages. Japan, on her part, since she was compelled to submit to
a revision of the Shimonoseki treaty, has been watching silently and
preparing anxiously for eventualities. England's official optimists talked
in 1895, however, as they still talk, of the successes gained, the
"rectification" of the Burmo-Chinese frontier and the incomplete "opening"
of the West River. As a matter of fact, the British government has done
little or nothing to establish overland railway communication from Burmah
to China, or to reach China "from behind," as Lord Salisbury called it;
and the Upper Yangtse, the main artery of China, has remained practically
unopened. Such, at least, was the situation a few months ago.
To understand the present situation, which is the natural sequel of 1895,
it is needful, first of all, to recognize the fact that Russia is, at this
moment, the protector of China against all comers, and that France
supports her firmly, while Germany, having once taken the decisive step of
placing herself alongside Russia, is likely to follow the czar's lead for
two sufficient reasons; namely, for fear of displeasing the Russian ally
of France, and because concessions are not likely to be obtained at Pekin
by Germany, if the latter country places itself in direct and open
opposition to the St. Petersburg government. Russian influence has, for
some time past, been omnipotent at Pekin, mainly through the kindly
assistance rendered to China in 1895, followed up by what has been
practically an offensive and defensive league. The nature of the
understanding between Russia and the Middle Kingdom has, indeed, for some
time been patent to all the world except Englishmen, the chief features of
it being: First, an offensive and defensive alliance; secondly, branch
railways through Manchuria; thirdly, the refortification of Port Arthur
and Talienwan, both to be paid for by China, and either or both of these
harbors to be placed at Russia's disposal whenever they may be required.
It is true that China has denied the existence of any agreement except
that concerning the northern Manchurian Railway, but Russia has never
denied anything except the accuracy of the version of the so-called
"Cassini" Convention, published by a Shanghai paper. Apart from the
existence of any written contract, the facts speak for themselves. Russia,
having had a prior lien on Kiao Chou, it is obvious that Germany could not
have seized that harbor in opposition to Russia.
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