There are serious risks that might enforce the advance of Russian troops
beyond the defined frontier. Already there are reports of general
discontent and threatened disturbances. In the event of a mutiny of
Turkish troops on the Russian border, the Russians might be invited to
assist by the Pacha in command. Sometimes such revolts are factitious,
for political purposes. In all cases the position of Russia in Asia
Minor is one of extreme danger to Turkey, and it is far from improbable
that activity on her side, and passiveness upon ours, may terminate in a
friendship between the Russians and the Turks to the detriment of
British interests, and to the confusion of the assumed Protectorate.
This document distinctly states:--If "Batoum, Ardahan, Kars, or any of
them shall be retained by Russia, and if any further attempt shall be
made at any future time by Russia to take possession of any further
territories of his Imperial Majesty the Sultan in Asia as fixed by the
definitive treaty of peace, England engages to join his Imperial Majesty
the Sultan in defending them by force of arms."
In a despatch from Lord Salisbury to Sir A. H. Layard, dated 30th May,
1878, these ominous words are contained:--
"Even if it be certain that Batoum and Ardahan
and Kars will not become the base from which
emissaries of intrigue will issue forth, to be in due
time followed by invading armies, the mere retention
of them by Russia will exercise a powerful influence
in disintegrating the Asiatic dominion of the Porte."
In the same lengthy despatch the conditions are described which Turkey
must fulfil in reforming the abuses of the present administration, &c.
&c., and there can be no doubt that the British government contemplated
the necessity of supplanting a considerable number of the peculant
Turkish officials by experienced English officers, whose supervision
would ensure the necessary reforms.
