There are serious risks that might enforce the advance of Russian troops
beyond the defined frontier. Already there are reports of general
discontent and threatened disturbances. In the event of a mutiny of
Turkish troops on the Russian border, the Russians might be invited to
assist by the Pacha in command. Sometimes such revolts are factitious,
for political purposes. In all cases the position of Russia in Asia
Minor is one of extreme danger to Turkey, and it is far from improbable
that activity on her side, and passiveness upon ours, may terminate in a
friendship between the Russians and the Turks to the detriment of
British interests, and to the confusion of the assumed Protectorate.
This document distinctly states:--If "Batoum, Ardahan, Kars, or any of
them shall be retained by Russia, and if any further attempt shall be
made at any future time by Russia to take possession of any further
territories of his Imperial Majesty the Sultan in Asia as fixed by the
definitive treaty of peace, England engages to join his Imperial Majesty
the Sultan in defending them by force of arms."
In a despatch from Lord Salisbury to Sir A. H. Layard, dated 30th May,
1878, these ominous words are contained:--
"Even if it be certain that Batoum and Ardahan
and Kars will not become the base from which
emissaries of intrigue will issue forth, to be in due
time followed by invading armies, the mere retention
of them by Russia will exercise a powerful influence
in disintegrating the Asiatic dominion of the Porte."
In the same lengthy despatch the conditions are described which Turkey
must fulfil in reforming the abuses of the present administration, &c.
&c., and there can be no doubt that the British government contemplated
the necessity of supplanting a considerable number of the peculant
Turkish officials by experienced English officers, whose supervision
would ensure the necessary reforms. If such a course should have been
accepted by the Porte there could be no question of the salutary effect,
as the presence of British officials in actual authority throughout the
provinces of Asia Minor would have proved to the various races our
positive determination to uphold their rights, and to defend them from
the oppression and extortion to which they had been subjected. Such a
position would have given England the control that is absolutely
necessary to effect the reforms in the administration of Asia Minor,
without which the result will be anarchy and revolution within a few
years, fostered by Russia precisely in accordance with the policy that
has terminated in the disruption of Turkey in Europe.
In the same despatch of 30th May, 1878, Lord Salisbury continues:--
"Her Majesty's Government intimated to the Porte on the
occasion of the Conference at Constantinople that they
were not prepared to sanction misgovernment and
oppression, and it will be requisite before they can
enter into any agreement for the defence of the Asiatic
territories of the Porte in certain eventualities, that
they should be formally assured of the intention of the
Porte to introduce the necessary reforms into the
government of the Christian and other subjects of the
Porte in those regions.
