I Fear It Would
Not Be So, But We May Allow That The Chance Is On The Card.
But it
is not conceivable that such an arrangement should be continued
when, after a year or two, men came to talk over the war with calmer
feelings and a more critical judgment.
The State legislatures would
become inquisitive, opinionative, and probably factious. They would
be unwilling to act, in so great a matter, under the dictation of
the Federal Congress; and, by degrees, one and then another would
decline to give its aid to the central government. However broadly
the acknowledgment may have been made that the levying of direct
taxes was necessary for the nation, each State would be tempted to
argue that a wrong mode and a wrong rate of levying had been
adopted, and words would be forthcoming instead of money. A resort
to such a mode of taxation would be a bad security for government
stock.
All matters of taxation, moreover, should be free from any taint of
generosity. A man who should attempt to lessen the burdens of his
country by gifts of money to its exchequer would be laying his
country under an obligation for which his country would not thank
him. The gifts here would be from States, and not from individuals
but the principle would be the same. I cannot imagine that the
United States government would be willing to owe its revenue to the
good-will of different States, or its want of revenue to their
caprice. If under such an arrangement the Western States were to
decline to vote the quota of income tax or property tax to which the
Eastern States had agreed - and in all probability they would
decline - they would in fact be seceding. They would thus secede
from the burdens of their general country; but in such event no one
could accuse such States of unconstitutional secession.
It is not easy to ascertain with precision what is the present
amount of debt due by the United States; nor probably has any
tolerably accurate guess been yet given of the amount to which it
may be extended during the present war. A statement made in the
House of Representatives by Mr. Spaulding, a member of the Committee
of Ways and Means, on the 29th of January last, may perhaps be taken
as giving as trustworthy information as any that can be obtained. I
have changed Mr. Spaulding's figures from dollars into pounds, that
they may be more readily understood by English readers: -
There was due up to July 1, 1861 18,173,566 pounds.
" added in July and August 5,379,357 "
" borrowed in August 10,000,000 "
" borrowed in October 10,000,000 "
" borrowed in November 10,000,000 "
" amount of Treasury Demand Notes issued 7,800,000 "
- - - - -
61,352,923 "
This was the amount of the debt due up to January 15th, 1862. Mr.
Spaulding then calculates that the sum required to carry on the
government up to July 1st, 1862, will be 68,647,077l. And that a
further sum of 110,000,000l. will be wanted on or before the 1st of
July, 1863. Thus the debt at that latter date would stand as
follows: -
Amount of debt up to January, 1862 61,352,923 pounds.
Added by July 1st, 1862 68,647,077 "
Again added by July 1st, 1803 110,000,000 "
- - - - - -
240,000,000 "
The first of these items may no doubt be taken as accurate. The
second has probably been founded on facts which leave little doubt
as to its substantial truth. The third, which professes to give the
proposed expense of the war for the forthcoming year, viz., from
July 1st, 1862, to June 30th, 1863, must necessarily have been
obtained by a very loose estimate. No one can say what may be the
condition of the country during the next year - whether the war may
then be raging throughout the Southern States, or whether the war
may not have ceased altogether. The North knows little or nothing
of the capacity of the South. How little it knows may be surmised
from the fact that the whole Southern army of Virginia retreated
from their position at Manassas before the Northern generals knew
that they were moving; and that when they were gone no word whatever
was left of their numbers. I do not believe that the Northern
government is even yet able to make any probable conjecture as to
the number of troops which the Southern Confederacy is maintaining;
and if this be so, they can certainly make no trustworthy estimates
as to their own expenses for the ensuing year.
Two hundred and forty millions is, however, the sum named by a
gentleman presumed to be conversant with the matter, as the amount
of debt which may be expected by midsummer, 1863; and if the war be
continued till then, it will probably be found that he has not
exceeded the mark. It is right, however, to state that Mr. Chase in
his estimate does not rate the figures so high. He has given it as
his opinion that the debt will be about one hundred and four
millions in July, 1862, and one hundred and eighty millions in July,
1863. As to the first amount, with reference to which a tolerably
accurate calculation may probably be made, I am inclined to prefer
the estimate as given by the member of the committee; and as to the
other, which hardly, as I think, admits of any calculation, his
calculation is at any rate as good as that made in the Treasury.
But it is the immediate want of funds, and not the prospective debt
of the country, which is now doing the damage. In this opinion Mr.
Chase will probably agree with me; but readers on this side of the
water will receive what I say with a smile. Such a state of affairs
is certainly one that has not uncommonly been reached by financiers;
it has also often been experienced by gentlemen in the management of
their private affairs.
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